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In previous articles we’ve laid down some basic rules to follow, looked at different bets such as asian handicaps and team totals and also talked about money management but the overriding factor in determining if you will be a winning sports bettor or not is quite simply your ability to pick winners!
If you’ve been following our articles by now you’ll only be making straight bets (absolutely no parlays!) and mostly on contests where there are only two possible outcomes which means that with equal stakes on all bets at typical prices of 1.91 (10/11 or -110 if you use UK or US style pricing) you need to predict 52.4 percent winners to break even.
If you only pick 50% winners at 1.91 you will lose at the rate of 4.55%. On the other hand if you can predict winners 55% of the time at 1.91 you will enjoy a 5% edge over the sportsbook. Here’s how to calculate your perceived edge:
Multiply your win% (let’s use 55% as an example here) by the odds 1.91 and subtract 100. So (55 x 1.91) - 100 = an edge of 5%
If you’re a very talented handicapper and predict winners at 57% which is widely regarded as being the overall success rate of professional sports bettors then you enjoy an edge of almost 9% (8.87% to be exact) on every bet you make at odds of 1.91.
Anyone that claims to predict winners at 60% or more over a long period of time is most probably lying and under no circumstances should you pay them for their picks or any other information.
Most sportsbooks will use this 1.91 style pricing model although by using betting exchanges and some reduced margin sportsbooks you can get lines at say -104 or 1.96 and sometimes even better. Obviously you should try to take advantage of these lines as the break even percentage will be lower (just 51% at 1.96) and your edge will be higher. A 55% win rate gives you an edge of 7.8% at odds of 1.96 compared to the above mentioned edge of 5% at odds of 1.91.
So you think 55% winners isn’t a lot? Give it a try and good luck! |
